ITCA
Looks like you’re in the ITCZ now. The wind is forecast to be light and more variable in direction over the next few days. I gave you the indicated wind directions in the forecast I just sent but I wouldn’t put too much faith in the directions as it’s very mixed all around you and when it shows less than 6kts in strength the direction is very likely to be different to what the forecast suggests, especially if there’s any squall activity.
The next 2 days look to be tough with relatively light head winds. On the 13th it looks like almost no wind, then on the 14th the wind shows to be filling in from the north 9-12kts and then turning NE for a couple of days. Well that’s how it’s looking at the moment but it’s a very changeable picture below 10N so don’t rely on anything the forecast shows too much.
The good news is it looks like you’ve broken through the southern edge of the EC so you shouldn’t have such a fight to slow progress west now. The current now shows to be weakening and becoming more mixed in direction. Between the stronger west flowing EC and the east flowing ECC there’ll be a lot of mixing so I’m not putting too much faith in what the current model indicates. The strong east flowing ECC shows to be running from around 6N. Above this between 8N and 6N it’s showing to be mainly NE but there are several areas where it’s weak and going in all directions so we’ll just have to see what you get.
The next few weeks are going to be tough in a different way from the tough of late. Intense heat, little in the way of any helpful breeze and currents that’ll be often changing and taking you in all directions. Don’t be too surprised if you have a few days of one step forward one step back.
At the moment the 6 30N 163 15W waypoint you sent me looks good for crossing the ECC. I’ll continue to monitor this and advise if this changes.
Let the ITCZ Challenge commence!